Dawn of Eurasia (three years later)
Have we come closer to the consolidation of Eurasia as a geopolitical concept? The answer, as I see it, is a clear yes. Let us look at the major actors in turn.
I was asked recently to speak about the evolution of the ideas I defended in Dawn of Eurasia since the book came out. Have we come closer to the consolidation of Eurasia as a geopolitical concept? The answer, as I see it, is a clear yes. Let us look at the major actors in turn.
• China. The Middle Kingdom continues to see the supercontinent as its natural sphere of expansion. In Eurasia it finds energy sources, large markets for its products, and sources of technology in those areas where it continues to lag Western democracies. The fundamental intuition behind the Belt and Road continues to be valid: Beijing sees its path to global domination not in a Pacific war with the United States but in control over Eurasia, relegating America to the role of a peripheral island.
• Russia now sees itself as a Eurasian country. What does this mean? That it can aspire to be a sovereign, independent center of power in a diverse, contradictory and multipolar Eurasia. Europe or the West were entities which Russia was supposed to join. Eurasia is a space where Russia can exist, where it can be itself.
• The European Union is now a Eurasian power. By this I mean that Europe can no longer be understood in isolation or on its own terms. Influence flows from Russia, the Middle East and China are now present everywhere in European politics and European society. The line separating Europe from Asia has collapsed. This is understood in Brussels and the national capitals: many of the most interesting recent developments and ideas in European politics are connected to the need to project European power towards the East, from where so much disruption now flows on a regular basis.
• The United States has replaced the liberal world order with Eurasia as the north star and compass of its foreign policy. The focus is on keeping the balance of power in Eurasia, preventing its control by a single power or alliance of powers. This reorientation has had a number of surprising consequences. Russia is no longer the civilisational other. It has become a bloc in the grand chessboard, ready to be used to balance or check a rising China. And Europe is no longer the sacred center and birthplace of Western civilisation: it has become a playground, with Washington exercising its power in order to prevent Russia and China from taking over and upsetting the balance.