What does a Biden presidency mean for world politics?

Some initial thoughts

As my readers well know, I like to start with the idea that, as Ballard once put it, the fictional elements of political life have little by little completely masked the real elements.

At the level of language and symbol - the fictional world - a Biden presidency will be a completely different universe. The storyline will shift. That is actually the advantage of living in fantasy life: without much change in “material realities,” it is possible to start anew and weave completely different myths. The characters will be rearranged. Some of the bad guys will become good ones. Others will recede to the background.

Thus, relations with Europe are likely to receive a remarkable boost - remember, however, that so far I am talking only of the world of fiction. People close to Biden have suggested to me that he will quickly remove the steel tariffs against Europe. He may also be visiting the continent shortly after his inauguration. It would be interesting if he did that as his first foreign visit (but the problem: which capital to visit first? Brussels?). His powerful narrative of national rejuvenation will fit well with a digression on the rejuvenation of the hallowed concept of the West.

Other countries will suffer a reversal of fortune, what the Greeks called peripeteia. The Saudi Crown Prince. Erdogan. Modi. The shining knights of the last four years will look less shiny in the new Biden production. Trump picked Saudi Arabia as his first foreign destination.

Now to the “real” elements. Even though Americans live in fantasy life, world politics obeys a stricter system. That system has changed rather dramatically since Biden perfected his foreign policy ideas. As the Chinese authorities now like to repeat, we live in the age of a great realignment. Bigger changes are afoot than humanity has seen in hundreds of years. This world is not conducive to multilateralism and cooperation. In a revolutionary period your priority is to spot the chances to get ahead and turn events in your favour.

I feel the main problem for Biden will be how to reconcile these new facts with his strong desire to return to a simpler world. Obama saw those changes with some clarity. He applauded a few of them: it was good news, for example, that so many Asians were becoming prosperous. The ones he did not like he trusted history would eventually manage and resolve. Now Biden - to all indications - disagreed with Obama on both these points. He is not as open to changes in the global order and he is not so subtle to trust or even understand that strange goddess, history. He will fight for his fantasy and in the process clash with the system. A tale of two systems - the old and the new - could be the tale of the Biden presidency.

Let the games begin.